Trade Wars, Middle-East Wars & the Path to the Coming Melt-Up, & Then Crash?
Over the last 2 months, we have witnessed the outbreak of a near all-out war in the Middle East between Iran and Israel. Following that, we have been witnessing the re-emergence of trade war related tensions with President Trump reigniting trade wars with virtually every major trading partner of the United States. And finally, on July 30, we saw President Trump slap India with an egregiously high 25% tariff. And yet, notwithstanding such adverse news flow, the NIFTY here in India has managed to rally more than 15% from its April-2025 lows. And US indices have rallied even more strongly during this time.
So what exactly is at play here? Quite clearly, it’s neither the war in the Middle East nor the trade wars that is driving the direction of equity markets at this point in time. Clearly, something else is! And unless we understand what that something is, there’s no way we’ll be able to navigate the twists and turns the equity markets are likely to throw our way in the weeks and months ahead. So what is that something? That’s exactly what I intend to discuss in this video.
So Do watch the full video on ”Trade Wars, Middle-East Wars & the Path to the Coming Melt-Up, & Then Market Crash | Indraanil Guha English"
Also, if you wish to understand the key global macro parameters that we have found to be extremely useful at this stage of the business cycle with respect to detecting the onset of interim pull-backs in equity markets, then please do watch this earlier video of mine, in which I discussed these parameters – US Junk Bond Spreads and the MOVE Index: How to Exit Precisely Before the Upcoming Recession? | NIFTY-50 Crash
